Mitigating uncertainty using alternative information sources and expert judgement in aquatic non-indigenous species risk assessment
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Mitigating uncertainty using alternative information sources and expert judgement in aquatic non-indigenous species risk assessment
Aquatic non-indigenous species (ANS) management employs risk assessment as a tool to prioritize prevention and control efforts, but timely and comprehensive risk estimates are difficult due to various sources of uncertainty, particularly knowledge gaps. Several fields use or endorse the use of precaution, as well as group Delphic processes, to mitigate this uncertainty. To test the application ...
متن کاملExpert Judgement Combination using
I enjoyed this paper, though disagreeing with its theory. For years I have tried to understand the Bayesian linear methodology; intrinsically some of the ideas seem so sensible. Ultimately, however, I have failed because for me judgements of uncertainty seem more primitive than judgements of prevision. The approach stemming from Savage (1972), DeGroot (1970) and others seems more natural to me ...
متن کاملExpert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change
445 Managing the risks of climate change requires a consistent and comprehensive approach to quantifying uncertainty and a clear narrative to describe the process. As economist Charles Kolstad noted, such efforts are neither new nor confined to the climate arena: “Uncertainty affects many different kinds of agents in the world — including governments — and there are a whole host of instruments ...
متن کاملpatterns and variations in native and non-native interlanguage pragmatic rating: effects of rater training, intercultural proficiency, and self-assessment
although there are studies on pragmatic assessment, to date, literature has been almost silent about native and non-native english raters’ criteria for the assessment of efl learners’ pragmatic performance. focusing on this topic, this study pursued four purposes. the first one was to find criteria for rating the speech acts of apology and refusal in l2 by native and non-native english teachers...
15 صفحه اولExpert Judgement and Expert Disagreement
As Hammond has argued, traditional explanations for disagreement among experts (incompetence, venality, and ideology) are inadequate. The character and fallibilities of the human judgement process itself lead to persistent disagreements even among competent, honest, and disinterested experts. Social Judgement Theory provides powerful methods for analysing such judgementally based disagreements ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Aquatic Invasions
سال: 2012
ISSN: 1818-5487
DOI: 10.3391/ai.2012.7.4.013